| John Katz is an analyst, strategist and financial writer based in London. To gain experience and qualifications in the Financial Services Industry he completed the necessary exams to qualify as an approved Securities Dealer and Trader and, while working for a hedge fund in London, was accredited by the United Kingdom Regulatory Authorities. He has contributed articles to the financial press,commentated for business television and is the author of Portfolio 2001 – How to Invest in the World’s Best Companies published by Random House Business Books in 1999. |
| Contents Foreword by Dr Marc Faber List of Charts and Tables Acknowledgements PART ONE – DEMYSTIFYING THE GOLD PRICE 1. Introduction: Why Gold? Unbiased Research The Stateless Money Franchise Crisis and Financial Market Risk Insurance A Niche Investment Squaring a Valuation Circle Leading Questions on Reasonable Prices Credible Analysis and Commentary US Defi cits and Missions Possible and Impossible The Road to Global Economic Rebalancing Why Gold Makes Sense Now Insight into the Post 9/11 World and the Jihad against America 2. The Gold Mining Industry Gold Mining Past and Present Rising Costs and Declining Production South Africa The Bear Market for Gold in the 1980s and 1990s Rising Mining Costs and South Africa’s Marginal Resources 3. Gold Supply and Demand Part One: Introduction to Gold Exchange Traded Funds – contributed by Neil Behrmann, Editor of Exchange Traded Gold A New Dynamic in the Supply and Demand Equation Part Two: Supply and Demand Fundamentals and Swing Factors Supply and Demand Fundamentals Growing Investor Demand Swing Factors Affecting Supply and Demand The Washington Agreement Exchange Traded Funds and Sovereign Wealth Funds Do Central Banks Still Need Gold and does Gold Still Need Central Banks? 4. The Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard Introduction: The Stateless Money Franchise Unfi nished Business The Gold Standard and the Gold Exchange Standard Gold in 1980 and 2008 Time Magazine on Bring Back the Gold Standard Robert Mundell on Gold at $10 000 The Offi cial US Enquiry into Restoring the Gold Standard in 1982 Overview on the Gold Standard Turning Points How the Gold Standard Fared US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Great Depression The Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression Roosevelt and the Birth of the Gold Exchange Standard The Post World War II Bretton Woods Accord, the Dollar and the IMF The Triffi n Dilemma and the Gold Pool Vietnam, Charles de Gaulle, Richard Nixon and the End of the Gold Standard Conclusion 5. The Dollar Standard and the ‘Defi cit without Tears’ The Dangers of Uncharted Waters The Traditional View A New Paradigm: The Bretton Woods II Theory Nouriel Roubini’s Criticism of Bretton Woods II The Defi cit without Tears Ben Bernanke Miranda Xafa Obstfeld and Rogoff Barry Eichengreen Assessing the Risks of a Hard Landing for the Dollar This Won’t be Fun Exchange Rates US Sovereign Debt Credit Standing George Soros on the Demise of the Dollar Standard Conclusion 6. The Economic Consequences of 9/11 and George W. Bush Fire Ready Aim War Costs without Any Sacrifi ce by Americans Déjà Vu Vietnam? Liquidity Tax Cuts, Defi cits and Debts ‘Implicit Debt’ on Entitlement Commitments Bush’s Ownership Society: Dismantling the Barriers to Home Ownership and the Real Estate Bubble Borrowings Using the House as an ATM Budgets, Social Security and Unfunded Entitlement Commitments President Bush and Social Security Reform Bottom Line: Federal US Fiscal Policy Remains Unsustainable The Bottom Line: Federal Fiscal Policy is Unsustainable The Realities of Implicit Debt and Generational Accounting Why We Should Consider Gold For How Long Will Asians go on Lending for Americans to go on Spending? 7. The End of Cheap Oil, ‘Chindia’ and Other Tipping Points to Instability World Economic Forum Annual Risks Review The End of the Days of Cheap Oil Conclusions from the International Energy Association 2007 Outlook A Finance-based Economy with Excessive Debt Dollar Falls as a Tipping Point Sovereign Wealth Funds Will Alternative Energy Come to the Rescue? 8. Globalisation & Global Economic Rebalancing Introduction: Skating on Thin Ice Financial Imbalances and Global Economic Meltdown Protectionism, Mercantilism and Mutual Interest IMF Engagement on Global Economic Imbalances Extracts from Headline Comments from IMF Staff Report on Financial Imbalances The $ as America’s Currency and Everyone Else’s Problem Again? Scenarios Outlined by the IMF Outcome of the IMF Consultations China’s Approach to Growth, Reform and Stability Sustainable Development as China’s Priority China’s Current Account Surplus Approach Emphasizes Stability US Treasury Secretary Paulson’s Approach to Cooperation with China Can the IMF Avoid Global Financial Meltdown? 9. Gold Prices: Infl ation, Defl ation, Booms and Busts Introduction: A Crisis of Confi dence Information Resources Including the LBMA Annual Gold Price Forecasts Accessible Information Drawing the Threads Together Prospects for Gold The Refl ationary Rescue An ‘Anti Risk Strategy’ Messages from History Price Overshoots What’s Different this Time? Gold Price Suppression A One Way Risk to Prices Papering Over the Cracks Do Trees Grow to Heaven? 10. Investing Choices Bullion, Coins, Shares in Funds and Mining Companies Gold Bullion and Coins Gold Coins and Bullion Bars Advice from a Coin Dealer Exchange Traded Funds Futures Contracts and Increased Risk Reward Exposure with all Derivatives Gold Mining Shares and Gold Funds Investing in Gold Mining Shares and Gold Funds Timing and Strategies Taxation ‘How to’ Resources for Trading and Monitoring Eagle Wing Research on Gold Funds PART TWO – GOLD INVESTING STRATEGIES BY FRANK HOLMES 11. Inside U.S. Global Investors Our Golden Rule: Moderation How We Work 12. Investing in Gold Equities What’s Driving Gold? The Investing Universe Gold Stock Funds The Return on Capital Model The Five Ms Managing Volatility Correlation Gold Seasonality 13. Gold Mining Opportunities and Threats Geographical Shift Gold Production Peak Exploration Spending Industry Consolidation Rising Operating Costs Summary PART THREE – APPENDIX Fact Book Chart Book Gold: Chronology Notes Bibliography Webliography Index |
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